What are the odds??? VERSUS Actual experience

[Rcmaster199 at aol.com]

David,

I am looking at it from my point of view only: 100 contests 
give or take in 24 years, 25 contestants average each contest, 4 1/2 rounds 
average each contest, 2 mid airs. Per my experience, that's about 1 in 2500 
tries, but it isn't probable. It's fact ;-)

regards

Matt



> Oops, correction:  The odds of you having a mid-air at a pattern contest 
> may be 1 in 56, not 1 in 560.  The odds of any contestant of having a mid-air 
> is 10 in 56, given the assumption that there are 56 pattern contests each year 
> in North America, and an average of 10 mid-airs per year.    
>  
> <<
> A more interesting question to me is, how offten do pattern planes collide 
> at contests?  I can control mid-airs outside of contests, but we are all 
> subject to the odds of a mid air if we participate in a contest.  Let's say there 
> are 10 mid-airs out of all the 8 NSRCA districts each year.    And lets say 
> there are 7 contests per district on average.  Then that is 56 contests.  Then 
> the odds of having one mid air in a contest is 1 in 56.  Now if there are 20 
> pilots average per contest, then your chance of mid-air is 1/(56 * 10) = one 
> chance in 560 contest attendances (I think). 
> 

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