What are the odds??? VERSUS Actual experience

[David Flynt]

Matt,

Thanks for sharing the numbers.  I was a little bored today while building
my Partner (it just won't end).  BTW, I did not mean to be insensitive to
some people loosing their planes, but we all know it happens.

So I think that you are saying that you personally did not experience the
two mid-airs, but that in 100 contests, with an average of 25 contestants,
you witnessed only two mid-airs?

I am sincerely interested in anybody else's numbers and observations on this
topic.

David
  -----Original Message-----
  From: discussion-request at nsrca.org [mailto:discussion-request at nsrca.org]On
Behalf Of Rcmaster199 at aol.com
  Sent: Saturday, August 02, 2003 10:09 PM
  To: discussion at nsrca.org
  Subject: Re: What are the odds??? VERSUS Actual experience


  David,

  I am looking at it from my point of view only: 100 contests
  give or take in 24 years, 25 contestants average each contest, 4 1/2
rounds average each contest, 2 mid airs. Per my experience, that's about 1
in 2500 tries, but it isn't probable. It's fact ;-)

  regards

  Matt




    Oops, correction:  The odds of you having a mid-air at a pattern contest
may be 1 in 56, not 1 in 560.  The odds of any contestant of having a
mid-air is 10 in 56, given the assumption that there are 56 pattern contests
each year in North America, and an average of 10 mid-airs per year.

    <<
    A more interesting question to me is, how offten do pattern planes
collide at contests?  I can control mid-airs outside of contests, but we are
all subject to the odds of a mid air if we participate in a contest.  Let's
say there are 10 mid-airs out of all the 8 NSRCA districts each year.    And
lets say there are 7 contests per district on average.  Then that is 56
contests.  Then the odds of having one mid air in a contest is 1 in 56.  Now
if there are 20 pilots average per contest, then your chance of mid-air is
1/(56 * 10) = one chance in 560 contest attendances (I think).




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