Avoidance Rule

[Keith Black]

Gray, your number of 0.08% is your probability of having a mid-air "per flight". 

Another way to look at this is:

6 planes involved in a mid-airs in 4 years
That's 1.5 planes per year lost.
So 1.5 out of 25 pilots loose a plane each year
That's a 6% chance of loosing a plane during a year of flying.

My guess is that if you had a 6% chance of having an auto accident per year you'd never get insurance!

In other words, I need to get this new Aries finished so I can get my next one started ;-)

Keith
  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: Gray E Fowler 
  To: discussion at nsrca.org 
  Sent: Friday, January 31, 2003 8:24 AM
  Subject: RE: Avoidance Rule



  I understand this discussion if it made mid-airs less frequent, but look at the numbers first prior to really putting something in that slows down a contest or adds other inconvenience. 
  This is my personal experience. I have seen 3 mid airs at a contest in 4 years. On the AVERAGE we have 25 flyers at 6 rounds per contest, 6 contests per year. That is 3600 flights/3 mid airs or 0.08%. 

  No one likes to lose a plane ( happened to me during practice-it was Lance's fault and that makes me feel better) but no one likes to drive to a contest and not get a maximum of flights in either. Calling out avoidance and bailing just does not seem to work with me, as Lance mentioned if you are gonna hit it will be a big surprize-no one can call you off in time. The reality probably is that at an I MAC event if someone bailed they were close but not really going to hit. The argument about lots more money does not work either because of the time required to build a plane outweighs the cost(for most). Also if money was a legitimate argument then since pattern planes only cost $2-3K instead of $5-6K IMAC then we could accept the risk. Pattern contests in D6 always try to run rapid and smooth where as the IMAC guys are allowed to land and re-fuel after round 1-still on the clock, then go up for round 2. They just do not seem to be as concerned! about packing in the flights. The "weather" reason is strange too as if lightning or something appear the CD would shut down (except Gene-he most likely would yell "stay out there you weenie.....you need to learn to fly in all conditions")-not the call of the flyer. If it got "dangerously windy" or something else-geeez its a hobby....dump the round and save your stinkin' plane-once again if the flyer could make this call it could wreak havoc and even spur on momentum to increase the weight limit or some other sensitive rule-issue(thats a dry joke!). 

  Consider yourself a soldier-Take the Patton attitude, some of you are gonna die, ( or the Full Metal Jacket attitude "better you than me") the rest of us live patternly happily after ever. 

  And NO I do not think I am Karma destined for a mid-air. Statistically speaking I a clear because I already had my mid-air (except for the reality that the statistical facts say my chances for a midair are the same every time I go up at a contest). So I hope-better you than me. 

  Have a nice weekend 




  Gray Fowler
  Principal Chemical Engineer
  Composites Engineering
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