<!DOCTYPE HTML PUBLIC "-//W3C//DTD HTML 4.0 Transitional//EN">
<HTML><HEAD>
<META content="text/html; charset=ISO-8859-1" http-equiv=Content-Type>
<META name=GENERATOR content="MSHTML 8.00.6001.19154"></HEAD>
<BODY bgColor=#ffffff text=#000000>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial>Then it shouldn't be inferred or
suggested that competitors don't understand "<FONT color=#800000>STATISTICAL
ANALYSIS</FONT>" . Statistically one could argue that more judges will make
errors from 20 years ago because of the increased workload and difficulty
catching ever downgrade when people are judging as many as 4 classes in one
event. Granted that is rare but that also happens.. Some of the most
capable judges used to avoid the chair just because of the demand could affect
their flights coming up right after serving. </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial> </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial>
Del</FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="FONT: 10pt arial; BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=jgghome@comcast.net href="mailto:jgghome@comcast.net">John Gayer</A>
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
title=nsrca-discussion@lists.nsrca.org
href="mailto:nsrca-discussion@lists.nsrca.org">General pattern discussion</A>
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Friday, December 09, 2011 11:54
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [NSRCA-discussion] Fw:
Judging . . . . . .</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>As I understand it, TBL is applied to the raw score for each
judge for the whole flight, not the maneuver, in an effort to correct for
biases and bad judging. Of course if the valid zero still puts the "lone wolf
zero judge" too far from the norm, then his scores <I>will</I> be
discarded.<BR>However no one is going to come up with a system that corrects
for judges that miss the extra spin or give a score when the wrong maneuver is
flown, especially when they are in the majority. What if they all miss it and
the pilot fesses up afterwards? How does a scoring system cope? That is
up to us as individual judges to fix, not the scoring
system.<BR><BR>John<BR><BR>On 12/9/2011 4:35 PM, Del wrote:
<BLOCKQUOTE cite=mid:1A9D653DBE944FF9A8316519213DCF15@ownerayn17ov1d
type="cite">
<META name=GENERATOR content="MSHTML 8.00.6001.19154">
<STYLE></STYLE>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial>Bob.. It is not so much
that people don't have a solid understanding of STATISTICAL ANALYSIS as
much as the problem of it happens more often than some are willing to admit
or realize that a judge that award a zero can be the only one that was the
accurate judge. The assumption being that if only one judge gave a zero then
the rest must be correct and the lone wolf is the wrong one. History
has shown that repeatedly is not the case in actuality. Speaking from my own
personal experience when judging both in Canada and the U.S. ~ yes `~ even
at the Nats.. Shudder..!!! </FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial></FONT></STRONG> </DIV>
<DIV><STRONG><FONT color=#0000ff face=Arial>
Del</FONT></STRONG></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="BORDER-LEFT: #0000ff 2px solid; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> [NSRCA-discussion] Fw:
Judging . . . . . .</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fff; FONT-FAMILY: times new
roman, new york, times, serif; COLOR: #000; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
<DIV style="RIGHT: auto"><SPAN style="RIGHT: auto"><VAR
id=yui-ie-cursor></VAR>Actually, no.</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV style="FONT-FAMILY: times new roman, new york, times,
serif; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
<DIV style="FONT-FAMILY: times new roman, new york, times,
serif; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
<DIV id=yiv708315470>
<DIV>
<DIV style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fff; FONT-FAMILY: times
new roman, new york, times, serif; COLOR: #000; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
<DIV><SPAN></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN>The only statistically valid comparison is when a large enough
number of judges are judging the same flight. Most local contests
have only two judges per flight. There is no way to know if one
judge is doing a better job than the other because you don't have a large
enough group to establish an average score.</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN>The only thing you may see are "high" and "low" judges, but
that is not important unless there is bias, which falls into my first
statement. </SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN>The NATS comes close to having large enough judging groups<VAR
id=yiv708315470yui-ie-cursor></VAR>. But, at least up until now, no
one has been willing to propose using any statisical analysis on the
judges performance. </SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV><SPAN>The Worlds uses TBL to analyze judging performance and exclude
"bad" scores. It is contriversial, since most people don't have a
solid understanding of the statistical analysis used. The raw scores
are posted during the preliminaries, and everyone uses those to determine
placement. But when TBL is applied, it can alter the pilot positions
by tossing out scores that are ruled statistically
invalid. </SPAN></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Bob Kane<BR><A class=moz-txt-link-abbreviated
href="mailto:getterflash@yahoo.com">getterflash@yahoo.com</A><BR></DIV>
<DIV style="FONT-FAMILY: times new roman, new york,
times, serif; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
<DIV style="FONT-FAMILY: times new roman, new
york, times, serif; FONT-SIZE: 12pt"><FONT size=2
face=Arial><B><SPAN style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">From:</SPAN></B> Peter Vogel
<A class=moz-txt-link-rfc2396E
href="mailto:vogel.peter@gmail.com"><vogel.peter@gmail.com></A><BR><B><SPAN
style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">To:</SPAN></B> Bob Kane <A
class=moz-txt-link-rfc2396E
href="mailto:getterflash@yahoo.com"><getterflash@yahoo.com></A>;
General pattern discussion <A class=moz-txt-link-rfc2396E
href="mailto:nsrca-discussion@lists.nsrca.org"><nsrca-discussion@lists.nsrca.org></A>
<BR><B><SPAN style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Cc:</SPAN></B> nsrca <A
class=moz-txt-link-rfc2396E
href="mailto:nsrca-discussion@lists.nsrca.org"><nsrca-discussion@lists.nsrca.org></A>
<BR><B><SPAN style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Sent:</SPAN></B> Friday, December
9, 2011 10:40 AM<BR><B><SPAN style="FONT-WEIGHT: bold">Subject:</SPAN></B>
Re: [NSRCA-discussion] Judging . . . . . .<BR></FONT><BR>
<DIV id=yiv708315470>
<DIV>
<DIV>Doesn't having a scoring system that allows for aggregated data
analysis help with judging the judges over time?</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV>Peter+<BR><BR>Sent from my iPhone4S</DIV>
<DIV><BR>On Dec 9, 2011, at 7:04 AM, Bob Kane <<A
href="mailto:getterflash@yahoo.com" rel=nofollow target=_blank
ymailto="mailto:getterflash@yahoo.com"
moz-do-not-send="true">getterflash@yahoo.com</A>> wrote:<BR><BR></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE type="cite">
<DIV>
<DIV style="BACKGROUND-COLOR: #fff; FONT-FAMILY: times new roman, new
york, times, serif; COLOR: #000; FONT-SIZE: 12pt">
<DIV><SPAN>Personally, I think we need to continue to focus of the
quality of judging before we get too distracted on automated score
entry.<BR></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN><BR></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN>2 - Know the rules</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN>3 - Apply the rules</SPAN></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN>4 - Be consistent<BR></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Bob Kane<BR><A href="mailto:getterflash@yahoo.com" rel=nofollow
target=_blank ymailto="mailto:getterflash@yahoo.com"
moz-do-not-send="true">getterflash@yahoo.com</A></DIV></DIV></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE>
<BLOCKQUOTE type="cite">
<DIV><SPAN>_______________________________________________</SPAN><BR><SPAN>NSRCA-discussion
mailing list</SPAN><BR><SPAN><A
href="mailto:NSRCA-discussion@lists.nsrca.org" rel=nofollow
target=_blank ymailto="mailto:NSRCA-discussion@lists.nsrca.org"
moz-do-not-send="true">NSRCA-discussion@lists.nsrca.org</A></SPAN><BR><SPAN><A
class=moz-txt-link-freetext
href="http://lists.nsrca.org/mailman/listinfo/nsrca-discussion">http://lists.nsrca.org/mailman/listinfo/nsrca-discussion</A></SPAN></DIV></BLOCKQUOTE></DIV></DIV><BR><BR></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV></DIV><BR><BR></DIV></DIV></DIV>
<P></P>
<HR>
_______________________________________________<BR>NSRCA-discussion
mailing list<BR><A class=moz-txt-link-abbreviated
href="mailto:NSRCA-discussion@lists.nsrca.org">NSRCA-discussion@lists.nsrca.org</A><BR><A
class=moz-txt-link-freetext
href="http://lists.nsrca.org/mailman/listinfo/nsrca-discussion">http://lists.nsrca.org/mailman/listinfo/nsrca-discussion</A></BLOCKQUOTE><BR>
<FIELDSET class=mimeAttachmentHeader></FIELDSET> <BR><PRE wrap="">_______________________________________________
NSRCA-discussion mailing list
<A class=moz-txt-link-abbreviated href="mailto:NSRCA-discussion@lists.nsrca.org">NSRCA-discussion@lists.nsrca.org</A>
<A class=moz-txt-link-freetext href="http://lists.nsrca.org/mailman/listinfo/nsrca-discussion">http://lists.nsrca.org/mailman/listinfo/nsrca-discussion</A></PRE></BLOCKQUOTE>
<P>
<HR>
<P></P>_______________________________________________<BR>NSRCA-discussion
mailing
list<BR>NSRCA-discussion@lists.nsrca.org<BR>http://lists.nsrca.org/mailman/listinfo/nsrca-discussion</BLOCKQUOTE></BODY></HTML>