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<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Systems which are ideal (no bias) on paper
can not always be implemented because of logistical considerations (time,
resources, labor, etc). Additionally, systems that are ideal on paper are
often more susceptible in practice to incurred bias (increased judging fatigue,
changes in weather, etc).<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>When a threshold number of entrants in a
given class is not exceeded, the arrangement of two flight groups with rotating
judges is preferred (ie, Intermediate and Advanced on Site 4, and F3A 2009 at
Sites 1 and 3). For F3A 2009, there was still a bias as all pilots were
not judged at the same flying site (and we all know flying sites 1 and 3 are
not equal), but this bias was accepted as the lesser of two evils (the 2<sup>nd</sup>
being doubling the needed flight time).<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>The current matrix system has bias and is only
preferred when the entrants (flight time) in Masters and FAI exceeds a
threshold (and the Matrix system would be used if Advanced / Intermediate
exceeded a threshold as well). The benefits of the matrix system are that
it is quite efficient and versatile from the perspectives of time, resources,
labor, judging fatigue, and changing weather. To realistically avoid
using the matrix system (with a large number of pilots) would require fewer
flights and longer judging stints. <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>The seeding typically spreads the top 8
pilots equally among the 4 groups (#1 in A, #2 in B, #3 in C, #4 in D). Keep
in mind that in years past the frequency distribution also needed to be
considered when forming the groups (with 2.4, this is increasingly less of a
concern), so ideal distribution of seeded pilots was not always possible. Assuming
the pilots performed consistently with ranking, the bias to pilots seeded 4+
results in the following way – <o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>- Pilots in Group A must normalize all 6
prelim flights against the #1 seed (the eventual contest winner).<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>- Pilots in Group B must normalize 2
prelim rounds against the #1 seed, and the remaining 4 prelim rounds against
the #2 seed.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>- Pilots in the C and D groups must
normalize 2 prelim rounds against the #1 seed, 2 prelim rounds against the #2 seed,
and 2 rounds against the #3 seed.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Accurate seeding does NOT eliminate and
has little effect on the inherent bias of the matrix system. The inherent
bias in the matrix system will exist unless the top 4 seeds (actually top 3
seeds because the 4 groups are always flying in pairs) fly equally and score
(RAW scores) equally every round of the prelims. The difference in flight
quality between the top 3 seeds will produce bias which, if great enough (and
it is, based on review and analyses of historical NATs scores), will produce
inaccuracies in the results (of the prelims). Inaccurate seeding can increase
the bias, and the greater the difference between the flying quality of the top
3 seeds, the greater the bias imparted to the scores of pilots seeded 4+.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>The mini-contest suggestion has the same flaw
at the same basic level as the matrix system – non equal exposure of
pilots in the prelims, the bias of which can be magnified if the seeding is not
accurate (or the ultimate performance of the seeded pilots is not as predicted
due to no shows, equipment failure, having a bad day, etc).<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>All systems will either include some inherent
bias, and/or be more/less susceptible to the introduction of bias during the process
(from judging float, changes in weather, differing flying sites, etc). Only
the inherent bias can be eliminated (the others are random), and only when it
is logistically feasible (increasingly difficult with increasing numbers of
pilots). For a National Championship, the goal (my opinion) of any
preliminary system should not be to determine an accurate ranking of the pilots
going to the finals, but accurate in choosing the top 8 pilots for the finals. Inaccuracies
in the ranking of pilots 8 and 9 (or even 7 thru 10, etc) may happen and may
keep a deserving pilot out of the finals, but, it is not likely that the 7<sup>th</sup>
or 10<sup>th</sup> ranked pilot is going to be the ultimate winner. At
the end of the day, the system with the least amount of inherent bias, is the
least susceptible to incurred bias, and is logistically feasible is the system
that should be used. Keep in mind it is highly desireable to have a
system that maintains equal exposure (or as close to it as possible) at all
points during the contest – so winners can be announced if the contest is
cut short by bad weather.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>In the past, I’ve gone through huge
amounts of historical data to arrive at my conclusions/opinions. Part of
the flaw / source for bias of any system using seeding is that the scores for
each pilot are essentially determined based on a single data point (the highest
raw score for the round). I think the inherent bias in the existing
matrix system could be reduced (but not eliminated) if the flight rounds were
normalized to the average raw score for the flight round – but I’ve
not run numbers (and don’t currently have time to do so) to verify or
disprove this, and obviously allowances would have to be made for incomplete
rounds (flameouts, midairs, etc).<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Oh, and for anyone interested in the matrix
“bias” number I came up with for non-seeded flyer “X” finishing
outside the top 8 - if flyer “X” is in Group A vs Group C or D,
flyer “X” will average 14 normalized points lower per round. Take
a look at historical NATs results, and see what 14 normalized points does for
finish order in the prelims. And then try to find a system that is
logistically feasible to handle 30+ pilots with less bias than the matrix
system.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'>Regards,<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><br>
Dave Lockhart<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><a href="mailto:DaveL322@comcast.net">DaveL322@comcast.net</a><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=2 color=navy face=Arial><span style='font-size:
10.0pt;font-family:Arial;color:navy'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<div>
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face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<hr size=2 width="100%" align=center tabindex=-1>
</span></font></div>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=2 face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Tahoma;font-weight:bold'>From:</span></font></b><font size=2
face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>
nsrca-discussion-bounces@lists.nsrca.org
[mailto:nsrca-discussion-bounces@lists.nsrca.org] <b><span style='font-weight:
bold'>On Behalf Of </span></b>Mark Hunt<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Monday, August 03, 2009 1:44
PM<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b> General pattern discussion<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> Re: [NSRCA-discussion]
Matrix improvements</span></font><o:p></o:p></p>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>I too would like to see an article on this. No offense, but
initially it is unclear to me how this would give any better exposure of pilots
to the same judges/conditions than the current matrix system allows for.
Would seeding not become even more critical in this scenario?<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>Mark<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><o:p> </o:p></span></font></p>
<div>
<div class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><font size=2
face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'>
<hr size=1 width="100%" align=center>
</span></font></div>
<p class=MsoNormal><b><font size=2 face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;
font-family:Tahoma;font-weight:bold'>From:</span></font></b><font size=2
face=Tahoma><span style='font-size:10.0pt;font-family:Tahoma'> Anthony Romano
<anthonyr105@hotmail.com><br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>To:</span></b>
nsrca-discussion@lists.nsrca.org<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Sent:</span></b> Monday, August 3, 2009
11:56:34 AM<br>
<b><span style='font-weight:bold'>Subject:</span></b> [NSRCA-discussion] Matrix
improvements<br>
</span></font><br>
Maybe Jerry could detail this in a Kfactor article. Perhaps could be
used at locals to help with an oversized Masters group.<br>
<br>
Anthony<br>
<o:p></o:p></p>
<div class=MsoNormal align=center style='text-align:center'><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>
<hr size=2 width="100%" align=center id=stopSpelling>
</span></font></div>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>Date: Thu, 30 Jul 2009
15:45:19 -0700<br>
From: derekkoopowitz@gmail.com<br>
To: nsrca-discussion@lists.nsrca.org<br>
Subject: Re: [NSRCA-discussion] Flash Poll - Relocate the Nats in 2010?<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>Jerry Budd had a good suggestion in running 4 mini-contests for 6
rounds where each pilot would fly against their group for 6 straight rounds and
then the top 3 from each group would fly in the finals. I'm leaning
toward this because the current format does not work. We also need to do
something about FAI - because there isn't equal exposure there either.<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><br>
<br>
<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>On Thu, Jul 30, 2009 at 2:41 PM, John Fuqua <<a
href="mailto:johnfuqua@embarqmail.com" target="_blank"
ymailto="mailto:johnfuqua@embarqmail.com">johnfuqua@embarqmail.com</a>>
wrote:<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'>Every Nats I went to that had all events in 2 weeks ended up screwing<br>
Pattern out of time or space. It never failed. I am against it even<br>
thought I liked to go see other events. We cannot do a first rate job
when<br>
we compete for runway space and days to fly.<br>
<br>
I thought AMA wanted to reduce Nats costs. Moving them around does not do<br>
that if you look at history and read up you will find a consistent comment<br>
about reducing Nats costs. NPAC was fully funded by the pilots and it
cost<br>
more than a typical Nats so factor that in.<br>
<br>
No one has addressed the equal exposure to judges issues for the current<br>
format yet and Mike's proposal does not correct that situation for Masters.<br>
I had one person suggest to me that if we continue to use the Matrix system<br>
that we take the top 3 pilots from each "Group" to a 3 round finals.
At<br>
least then we have equal judging exposure and more or less equal weather<br>
exposure per round.<br>
<br>
John<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><br>
-----Original Message-----<br>
From: <a href="mailto:nsrca-discussion-bounces@lists.nsrca.org" target="_blank"
ymailto="mailto:nsrca-discussion-bounces@lists.nsrca.org">nsrca-discussion-bounces@lists.nsrca.org</a><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
<div>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal style='margin-bottom:12.0pt'><font size=3
face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:12.0pt'>[mailto:<a
href="mailto:nsrca-discussion-bounces@lists.nsrca.org" target="_blank"
ymailto="mailto:nsrca-discussion-bounces@lists.nsrca.org">nsrca-discussion-bounces@lists.nsrca.org</a>]
On Behalf Of Tony<br>
Sent: Thursday, July 30, 2009 2:56 PM<br>
To: 'General pattern discussion'<br>
Subject: Re: [NSRCA-discussion] Flash Poll - Relocate the Nats in 2010?<br>
<br>
That is a possibility also. AMA is thinking about returning the NATS to a
2<br>
week all-events NATS like used to be done. If all events are together, HQ<br>
can put all costs into one effort. If they are all split up, Each group<br>
would have more costs to deal with due to the fact that HQ can't send a<br>
group of people to every site.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Tony Stillman, President<br>
<br>
Radio South, Inc.<br>
<br>
139 Altama Connector, <st1:address w:st="on"><st1:Street w:st="on">Box</st1:Street>
322</st1:address><br>
<br>
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Brunswick</st1:City>, <st1:State
w:st="on">GA</st1:State> <st1:PostalCode w:st="on">31525</st1:PostalCode></st1:place><br>
<br>
1-800-962-7802<br>
<br>
<a href="http://www.radiosouthrc.com/" target="_blank">www.radiosouthrc.com</a><br>
<br>
________________________________<br>
<br>
From: <a href="mailto:nsrca-discussion-bounces@lists.nsrca.org" target="_blank"
ymailto="mailto:nsrca-discussion-bounces@lists.nsrca.org">nsrca-discussion-bounces@lists.nsrca.org</a><br>
[mailto:<a href="mailto:nsrca-discussion-bounces@lists.nsrca.org"
target="_blank" ymailto="mailto:nsrca-discussion-bounces@lists.nsrca.org">nsrca-discussion-bounces@lists.nsrca.org</a>]
On Behalf Of Tim Taylor<br>
Sent: Thursday, July 30, 2009 3:39 PM<br>
To: General pattern discussion<br>
Subject: Re: [NSRCA-discussion] Flash Poll - Relocate the Nats in 2010?<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
It was done, It was called NPAC<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Tim<br>
<br>
--- On Thu, 7/30/09, Bill's Email <<a href="mailto:wemodels@cox.net"
target="_blank" ymailto="mailto:wemodels@cox.net">wemodels@cox.net</a>>
wrote:<br>
<br>
<br>
From: Bill's Email <<a
href="mailto:wemodels@cox.net" target="_blank" ymailto="mailto:wemodels@cox.net">wemodels@cox.net</a>><br>
Subject: Re: [NSRCA-discussion] Flash Poll -
Relocate the Nats in<br>
2010?<br>
To: "General pattern discussion" <<a
href="mailto:nsrca-discussion@lists.nsrca.org" target="_blank"
ymailto="mailto:nsrca-discussion@lists.nsrca.org">nsrca-discussion@lists.nsrca.org</a>><br>
Date: Thursday, July 30, 2009, 2:06 PM<br>
<br>
Why not allow the SIGS to do their own thing? IMAC
and NSRCA do not<br>
need to share a site. The LSF can find a site for the soaring NATS. Pylon<br>
knows what venues work for them and so on. FF can do their own thing as<br>
well. Why tie soaring and FF together and so on??<br>
<br>
<br>
Tony wrote:<br>
<br>
Matt:<br>
Yes, it is just difficult to tell if it is actually
feasible. The<br>
problem is that it requires a large site for Pattern/Pylon/IMAC and will<br>
require another large site for Soaring/Outdoor FF. It may be very
difficult<br>
to actually find places that can handle this group.<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
<br>
Tony Stillman, President<br>
<br>
Radio South, Inc.<br>
<br>
139 Altama Connector, <st1:address w:st="on"><st1:Street w:st="on">Box</st1:Street>
322</st1:address><br>
<br>
<st1:place w:st="on"><st1:City w:st="on">Brunswick</st1:City>, <st1:State
w:st="on">GA</st1:State> <st1:PostalCode w:st="on">31525</st1:PostalCode></st1:place><br>
<br>
1-800-962-7802<o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
</div>
</div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><a href="http://www.radiosouthrc.com/" target="_blank">www.radiosouthrc.com</a>
<<a href="http://www.radiosouthrc.com/" target="_blank">http://www.radiosouthrc.com/</a>><o:p></o:p></span></font></p>
<div>
<p class=MsoNormal><font size=3 face="Times New Roman"><span style='font-size:
12.0pt'><br>
________________________________<br>
<br>
<br>
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