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<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Derek, I followed your summary pretty well until
the first sentence in the third paragraph. "system works very well and in the
end the correct order of finish is picked- which is what we want" </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Where is "correct " quantified? </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Who says what is "correct"? </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>What says that one judge being low on a maneuver is
"wrong"/</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Sounds more like the scenario previously mentioned
as the "7 to 9 syndrome" is the safe way to score.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>How many times have you scored a zero and others
gave a score-in error- because the pilot rolled the wrong way? By the way
throwing out the old requirement that the judges confer on zeros has only helped
get us in this "perceived" problem.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Sure sounds like a "dry lab" approach to me! Easy
to massage data and the algorithms</FONT><FONT face=Arial size=2> to
"prove" the result desired. </FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>I went through the dataseveral years ago, that was
available-and it was not all-on the "Judges ratings", and got the
same gut feeling.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>What the pilot sees/flies, and his caller sees, and
what each judge sees are seldom the same for a multitude of reasons.
</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Also as a judge, have you ever had a "watcher" come
up after a flight and say how great the flight was- and you had just given
several zeros/low scores. Amazing how they change their perspective when you
point out the obvious errors. That is assuming your memory hasn't blanked out
the past pilot yet, and now you are getting ready for the
next.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial size=2>Jerry</FONT> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=derekkoopowitz@gmail.com href="">Derek Koopowitz</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
title=nsrca-discussion@lists.nsrca.org href="">'NSRCA Mailing List'</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, October 18, 2007 11:25
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [NSRCA-discussion] D3
Championship - Scoring SystemOverhaul-LONG</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=156491504-19102007><FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff size=2>TBL - scores go back to the pilots as is... raw.
TBL is only factored once a round is finished and the results
calculated. With TBL scores are adjusted to the whole score and result
in whole numbers. Remember, the entire score isn't thrown out - just a
maneuver score. When a score is dropped then TBL is run on the entire
set of scores again to recalculate the mean and std. deviation - it is an
iterative process until all scores fall within the range that are calculated
for the pilots/judges.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=156491504-19102007><FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=156491504-19102007><FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff size=2>TBL was used at the TOC for all years starting in 1999
onwards. It has been used at the WC since 2001 (I
think).</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=156491504-19102007><FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=156491504-19102007><FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff size=2>Bottom line - the system works very well and in the end
the correct order of finish is picked - which is what we want. In
all the years of scoring with TBL at the TOC I saw very few judges scores
discarded which probably says more about the quality of judging than anything
else. I'd be very curious what the results have been at the F3A WC's
since it was implemented.</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=156491504-19102007><FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=156491504-19102007><FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff size=2>I would love to see TBL in use at the Nats for the Finals
in both classes - we certainly have enough judges to support its
use.</FONT></SPAN></DIV><BR>
<DIV class=OutlookMessageHeader lang=en-us dir=ltr align=left>
<HR tabIndex=-1>
<FONT face=Tahoma size=2><B>From:</B> nsrca-discussion-bounces@lists.nsrca.org
[mailto:nsrca-discussion-bounces@lists.nsrca.org] <B>On Behalf Of
</B>rcmaster199@aol.com<BR><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, October 18, 2007 8:51
PM<BR><B>To:</B> nsrca-discussion@lists.nsrca.org<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re:
[NSRCA-discussion] D3 Championship - Scoring System
Overhaul-LONG<BR></FONT><BR></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV><SPAN contentEditable=false
style="DISPLAY: inline-block"></SPAN>Earl,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>If I remember correctly, some of the results from the Judge Evaluation
have been presented either in the KF or the website in past years.
But I haven't seen any results posted lately. Perhaps you are right...posting
might serve a purpose.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Curious...in the TBL method, do the adjustments to a judge's scores come
in whole or fractional numbers? How are the scoresheets that are given back to
the pilots handled.....I mean, do they show adjusted scores or as judged? Or
both?</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Koop, was TBL used in the TOC? </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>If we have access to the algorithm, I wouldn't mind taking a peek of how
the 2007 F3A Nats Final could turn out. I would bet that it wouldn't make much
difference on where the pilots placed.</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Matt</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>-----Original Message-----<BR>From: Earl Haury
<ejhaury@comcast.net><BR>To: NSRCA Mailing List
<nsrca-discussion@lists.nsrca.org><BR>Sent: Thu, Oct 18 10:24
PM<BR>Subject: Re: [NSRCA-discussion] D3 Championship - Scoring System
Overhaul -LONG<BR><BR>
<DIV id=AOLMsgPart_3_850a6352-9570-4af6-a752-5bdc9529c253>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>We miss an opportunity for judges to evaluate
their performance by not distributing the results of the analysis of that
performance (at major meets). I, for one, would like the judges performance
data to be published in the K-Factor (after all - the pilots scores are
published). However, realizing that some are squeamish about this, I think
that we should still provide each judge with the analysis of his / her
specific performance. At least, each judge would then have an indication of
their current skills and any variation over the years.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV><FONT face=Arial>Earl</FONT></DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-RIGHT: 0px; PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #000000 2px solid; MARGIN-RIGHT: 0px">
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial">----- Original Message ----- </DIV>
<DIV
style="BACKGROUND: #e4e4e4; FONT: 10pt arial; font-color: black"><B>From:</B>
<A title=derekkoopowitz@gmail.com href="">Derek Koopowitz</A> </DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>To:</B> <A
title=nsrca-discussion@lists.nsrca.org href="">'NSRCA Mailing List'</A>
</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, October 18, 2007 7:53
PM</DIV>
<DIV style="FONT: 10pt arial"><B>Subject:</B> Re: [NSRCA-discussion] D3
Championship - Scoring System Overhaul -LONG</DIV>
<DIV><BR></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=296224900-19102007><FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff size=2>I'll post my dissertation on TBL again since this issue
seems to crop up time and time again...</FONT></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=296224900-19102007><FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=296224900-19102007>
<DIV
style="mso-element: dropcap-dropped; mso-element-frame-hspace: 3.0pt; mso-element-wrap: auto; mso-element-anchor-vertical: paragraph; mso-element-anchor-horizontal: column; mso-height-rule: exactly; mso-element-linespan: 3"><FONT
face=Garamond><SPAN class=296224900-19102007>T</SPAN>he Tarasov-Bauer-Long
(TBL) Scoring method has been around since the 1970’s.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>It has been used in the full size
arena since 1978 and has been used at every full size IAC World Championship
since 1980.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>The TBL method
applies proven statistical probability theory to the judge’s scores to
resolve style differences and bias, and to avoid the inclusion of potential
faulty judgements in contest results.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</SPAN>To understand just why we need TBL, and how it works, is if
considerable importance to us all.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</SPAN>It is important to the pilots because it is there to reduce the
prospect of unsatisfactory judgements affecting their results, and it is
important for judges because it will introduce a completely new dimension of
scrutiny into the sequence totals, and it will also discreetly engage the
attention of the Chief Judge, or Contest Director, if the judges conclusions
differ sufficiently from all those other judges on the same
panel.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV class=MsoBodyText style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left"
align=left><FONT face=Garamond>When people get together to judge how well a
pre-defined competitive task is being tackled, the range of opinions is
often diverse.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>This is entirely
natural among humans where the critique of any display of skill relies on
the interpretation of rapidly changing visual cues.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>In order to minimize the prospect of
any “way out opinions” having too much effect on the result, it is usual to
average the accumulated scores to arrive at a final assessment, which takes
everybody’s opinion into account.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</SPAN>Unfortunately this averaging approach can achieve the opposite of
what we really want, which is to identify, and where needed, remove those
“way out opinions” because they are the ones most likely to be ill-judged
and therefore should be discarded, leaving the rest to determine the more
appropriate result.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV class=MsoBodyText style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left"
align=left><FONT face=Garamond>In aerobatics the process of judging
according to the rulebook normally leads to a series of generally similar
personal views.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>However, one
judge’s downgrading may be harsher or more lenient than the next, their
personal feelings toward each competitor or aircraft type may predispose
toward favor or dislike (bias), and they will almost certainly miss or see
things that other judges do not.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</SPAN>How then can we “judge” the judges and so reach a conclusion, which
has good probability of acceptance by all the concerned
parties?</FONT></DIV>
<DIV class=MsoBodyText style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left"
align=left><FONT face=Garamond>The key word is <B
style="mso-bidi-font-weight: normal"><I
style="mso-bidi-font-style: normal">probability</I></B>, the concept of a
perceived level of confidence in collectively viewed judgements has entered
the frame.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>What we really mean
is that we must be confident that opinions pitched outside some pre-defined
level of reasonable acceptability will be identified as such and will not be
used.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>This sort of situation is
the daily bread and butter of well established probability theory which,
when suitably applied, can produce a very clear cut analysis of numerically
expressed opinions provided that the appropriate criteria have been
carefully established beforehand.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV class=MsoBodyText style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left"
align=left><FONT face=Garamond>What has been developed through several
previous editions is some arithmetic which addresses the judge’s raw scores
in such a way that any which are probably unfair are discarded with an
established level of confidence.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</SPAN>To understand the process you need only accept some quite simple
arithmetic procedures, which are central to what is called “statistical
probability”.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV class=MsoBodyText style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left"
align=left><FONT face=Garamond>The TBL scoring system in effect does the
following:</FONT></DIV>
<DIV class=MsoListBullet2
style="MARGIN: 0in 0.25in 12pt 0.75in; TEXT-INDENT: -0.25in; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1"
align=left><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol"><SPAN
style="mso-list: Ignore">·<SPAN
style="FONT: 7pt 'Times New Roman'">
</SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><FONT face=Garamond>Commonizes the judging
styles.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV class=MsoListBullet2
style="MARGIN: 0in 0.25in 12pt 0.75in; TEXT-INDENT: -0.25in; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1"
align=left><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol"><SPAN
style="mso-list: Ignore">·<SPAN
style="FONT: 7pt 'Times New Roman'">
</SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><FONT face=Garamond>Computes TBL scores</FONT></DIV>
<DIV class=MsoListBullet2
style="MARGIN: 0in 0.25in 12pt 0.75in; TEXT-INDENT: -0.25in; TEXT-ALIGN: left; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1"
align=left><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 14pt; FONT-FAMILY: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-size: 10.0pt; mso-fareast-font-family: Symbol; mso-bidi-font-family: Symbol"><SPAN
style="mso-list: Ignore">·<SPAN
style="FONT: 7pt 'Times New Roman'">
</SPAN></SPAN></SPAN><FONT face=Garamond>Publishes results</FONT></DIV>
<DIV class=MsoBodyText style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left"
align=left><FONT face=Garamond></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV class=MsoBodyText style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left"
align=left><FONT face=Garamond>Commonizing the judging styles involves
remodeling the scores to bring all the judging styles to a common format and
removing any natural bias between panel members.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Following some calculations, each
judge’s set of scores are squeezed or stretched and moved en-bloc up or down
so that the sets all show the same overall spread and have identical
averages (bias).<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>Within each
set the pilot order and score progression must remain unaltered, but now
valid score comparisons are possible between all the panel judges on behalf
of each pilot.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV class=MsoBodyText style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left"
align=left><FONT face=Garamond>Computing the TBL score involves looking at
the high and low scores in each pilot’s set and throws out any that are too
“far out” to be fair.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>This is
done by subtracting the average for the set from each one and dividing the
result by the “sample standard deviation” - if the result of this sum is
greater than 1.645 then according to statistical probability theory we can
be at least 90% confident that it is unfair, so the score is discarded.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>This calculation and the
mathematically derived 1.645 criteria is the key to the correctness of the
TBL process, and is based on many years of experience by the full size
aerobatics organization with contest scores at all levels.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>The discarding of any scores of
course changes for a pilot the average and standard deviation of their
remaining results, and so the whole process is repeated.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>After several cycles any “unfair”
scores will have gone, and those that remain will all satisfy the essential
90% confidence criteria.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV class=MsoBodyText style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left"
align=left><FONT face=Garamond>Publishing the results is derived by
averaging each pilot’s scores.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</SPAN>The final TBL iteration therefore has any appropriate penalty/bonus
values applied and the results are then sorted in order of descent of the
total scores to rank the pilots first to last.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>These final scores may, or may not,
be normalized to 1000 points, depending on the setting for the selected
class.</FONT></DIV>
<DIV class=MsoBodyText style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left"
align=left><FONT face=Garamond>Educating and improving the judges is a
useful by-product of this process in that it provides all the bells and
whistles how each judge has performed by comparison with the overall judging
panel average and when seen against the 90% level of confidence
criteria.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>The TBL system will
produce an analysis showing each judge the percentage of scores accepted as
“OK”, and a comparison with the panel style (spread of score) and bias
(average).</FONT></DIV>
<DIV class=MsoBodyText style="MARGIN: 0in 0in 12pt; TEXT-ALIGN: left"
align=left><FONT face=Garamond>Unfortunately TBL, by definition, brings with
it a 10% possibility of upsetting an honest judge’s day.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>The trade-off is that we expect not
only to achieve a set of results with at least 90% confidence that are
“fair” every time, but that the system also provides us with a wonderful
tool to address our judging standards.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</SPAN>TBL will ensure that every judge’s opinion has equal weight, and that
each sequence score by each judge is accepted only if it lies within an
acceptable margin from the panel average.<SPAN
style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>TBL, however, by necessity takes the
dominant judging panel view as the “correct” one and it can’t make right
scores out of wrong ones.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes"> </SPAN>If 6
out of 8 judges are distracted and make a mess out of one pilots efforts,
then for TBL this becomes the controlling assessment of that pilots
performance, and the other 2 diligent judges who got it right will see their
scores unceremoniously zapped.<SPAN style="mso-spacerun: yes">
</SPAN>In practice this would be extremely unusual - from the judging line
it is almost impossible to deliberately upset the final results without
collusion between a majority of the judges, and if that starts to happen
then someone is definitely on the wrong planet.</FONT></DIV></SPAN></DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=296224900-19102007><FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=296224900-19102007><FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><SPAN class=296224900-19102007><FONT face=Arial
color=#0000ff size=2></FONT></SPAN> </DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left>
<HR>
</DIV>
<DIV dir=ltr align=left><FONT face=Tahoma size=2><B>From:</B> <A
href="">nsrca-discussion-bounces@lists.nsrca.org</A> [<A
href="">mailto:nsrca-discussion-bounces@lists.nsrca.org</A>] <B>On Behalf Of
</B><A href="">vicenterc@comcast.net</A><BR><B>Sent:</B> Thursday, October
18, 2007 8:11 AM<BR><B>To:</B> NSRCA Mailing List<BR><B>Subject:</B> Re:
[NSRCA-discussion] D3 Championship - Scoring System
Overhaul<BR></FONT><BR></DIV>
<DIV></DIV>
<DIV>Tony,</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Do you know if the TBL system eliminates the high and low
scores? I think that is a good solution but we can not do it in local
contests. Probably we could in some contests since we have many
Masters vs. F3A. </DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV>Do you know "link" where we can read about TBL system?</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<DIV class=signature id=signature>--<BR>Vicente "Vince" Bortone</DIV>
<DIV> </DIV>
<BLOCKQUOTE
style="PADDING-LEFT: 5px; MARGIN-LEFT: 5px; BORDER-LEFT: #1010ff 2px solid">--------------
Original message -------------- <BR>From: "Tony" <<A
href="">tony@radiosouthrc.com</A>> <BR>
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<DIV class=Section1>
<DIV class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial color=navy size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">This TBL will
find these problems and is in use at World Champs. The problem is
that you need at least 5 judges on a line.</SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial color=navy size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"></SPAN></FONT> </DIV>
<DIV>
<DIV class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial color=navy size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Tony Stillman,
President</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=navy><SPAN
style="COLOR: navy"></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial color=navy size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Radio South,
Inc.</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=navy><SPAN
style="COLOR: navy"></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial color=navy size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">139 Altama
Connector, Box 322</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=navy><SPAN
style="COLOR: navy"></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial color=navy size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">Brunswick</SPAN></FONT><FONT
face=Arial color=navy size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">, GA
31525</SPAN></FONT><FONT color=navy><SPAN
style="COLOR: navy"></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial color=navy size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial">1-800-962-7802</SPAN></FONT><FONT
color=navy><SPAN style="COLOR: navy"></SPAN></FONT></DIV>
<DIV class=MsoNormal><FONT face=Arial color=navy size=2><SPAN
style="FONT-SIZE: 10pt; COLOR: navy; FONT-FAMILY: Arial"><A
href="">tony@radiosouthrc.com</A></SPAN></FONT></DIV></DIV>
<DIV>
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