[NSRCA-discussion] Future of Pattern

Mon Mar 19 05:47:48 AKDT 2012

 

	Mike, 

	I completely agree with you.  Pattern is not dying.  I think it is
much healthier now than it has been in the past few years.  There are
so many other parts of the hobby that people have gravitated to.  You
aren't going to get most young kids as they will go to the 3D stuff
and heli stuff.  It is just more exciting.  Some will, but for the
most part you are going to see older people join the pattern ranks,
with a few exceptions.  Most contests now are between 20 and 30
pilots, which is a nice size to get comfortably get in 6 rounds and
still have the fun relaxed atmosphere many enjoy.  Even NATS
participation hasn't dwindled a great deal.  Last year, we were up,
and people can say it was because of the weight limit increase, but I
think deep down everyone knows it was directly related to the worlds
being in town.  NATS participation is a lot more affected by the price
of travel to and from Muncie, rather than the rules.   The price of
the planes and such today are not that much higher than years ago. 
The difference is that most are ARF's now.  By the time you purchesed
all of the wood for a kit 15 years ago, and take into account
inflation, our stuff really isn't that expensive.  There are many
options out there now that will make weight without spending a
fortune.  Regardless of what some people say.  I know the Vanquish
will, as I did it, and I purposely used the cheapest stuff I could
justify.  I know of at least 2 other people who used my exact setup
and came out with the same weight.  

	If we are really worried about participation in pattern, leave the
rules alone and figure out how to cut the costs of going to a contest,


	Arch 
 On Mon 03/19/12 9:34 AM , mike mueller mups1953 at yahoo.com sent:
    John I don't think this email list represents the feelings of the
average pattern enthusiast. Your points are well thought out and I
think you hit on a lot of important issues . I for one wouldn't get
too upset with the exchange of ideas being thrown out there. Debate is
healthy. Where it all ends???    I think pattern is actually doing
fairly well. In some ways it surprises me that anyone else but myself
understands it.   Dwindling ranks could easily be explained. Dramatic
social changes, the economy and a sport that is difficult to
participate in due to the effort it takes. These issues and a myriad
of others have more of an effect than any of the rule tweaks that are
being debated.   IMAC in our area has had a significant decrease in
attendance in the last few years. Their planes on average cost a lot
more than ours. Their Nats  has  significantly declined in the last
few years. They get about a third of the flyers as we do. How can one
explain that?  I can't see great numbers of newbies flocking to join
our ranks. I think it is what it is. I'll strive to see small gains
and little victory's when we get someone new to enjoy the sport. I
won't focus on it though because it is what it is. No sense trying to
put lipstick on a pig so you can call it something else. I say embrace
it and all of its flaws. The 1% who appreciate it will understand.  If
you want to make a difference and grow the sport become an ambassador
for it. Help guys at the practice field. Help the new guys at their
first contest. It's far and away the most significant activity we can
do to grow pattern. It's the grass roots small things that can add up.
 Now lets see how we handle $6 gas.  Mike Mueller 
     FROM: Michael S. Harrison 
 TO: 'General pattern discussion' 
 SENT: Monday, March 19, 2012 7:30 AM
 SUBJECT: Re: [NSRCA-discussion] Future of Pattern
        well written, i agree     FROM:
nsrca-discussion-bounces at lists.nsrca.org
[mailto:nsrca-discussion-bounces at lists.nsrca.org] ON BEHALF OF John
Gayer
 SENT: Sunday, March 18, 2012 10:38 PM
 TO: General pattern discussion
 SUBJECT: [NSRCA-discussion] Future of Pattern   Apparently we can
discuss the pros and cons of a new weight rule til hell freezes over
without anyone changing their mind. I would like to share with you how
I converted from from a no weight change advocate to someone pushing
for an increase. I have always felt that most of the past increases in
cost were due to rule changes on noise, on turnaround, on engine
sizes, for some examples. While this is a factor, there are others at
work. Inflation and improved quality of the equipment are also major
factors. I’m also not convinced that it really costs that much more
in terms of percentage of your takehome income to compete than it did
in the old days. However there is a large increase in other
activities, both in the hobby and without, competing for your dollars.
Another point is that all those potentially expensive rule changes
were initiated by the FAI and incorporated by the AMA. So I came to
the conclusion that we could make adjustments to AMA rules without
upsetting the apple cart. 
 The main reason for change is that the status quo is not working.
Pattern has changed from the central focus of many clubs and many
flyers to being a small niche in both clubs and the marketplace. It
used to be that club sport flyers that never attended a contest still
built and flew simply constructed Balsa or balsa and foam pattern
planes. This is gone. Even considering the modern equivalents of these
planes such as the Excelleron and others, most are now out of
production and not being replaced by new kits/ARFs. Just ask any
manufacturer about the importance of pattern in their marketing plans.
Ask Jon Bruml who sells ads in the K-Factor. I'm not privy to the
figures but I suspect even the topline radios that we consider ours,
sell better for IMAC, Helis and jets. Time was, your club members were
interested in your new radio/model/motor/engine. Now they just say
“smooth flying model” and ask about the weather.
 The point is that we are now a bit player and in all probability
will never occupy center stage again. See a lot of action in the
modeling press about last years WC? Get real. Nobody else cares and we
are all getting older and slower, dying off one by one and being
replaced by only a few and most of those are in their forties. See the
graph below? It shows a slow decline in membership dues and it gets
worse the further back you go. While the NSRCA membership decline is
not conclusive proof that pattern is declining in this country, I am
convinced that they are related. What I see in contest attendance in
the west is a steady decline over the last couple of decades and is a
confirmation of the NSRCA numbers. 
 So what should the NSRCA and the pattern community do? Maintain the
status quo?  I believe I've made a case that it's not working. Can we
do something to get back on center stage? Very unlikely. Can we do
something to move from a dying niche in the hobby to a growing niche? 
Perhaps.
 As a first step the NSRCA board has made rules proposals with the
intent of increasing safety and making it easier/cheaper to
participate. Will these rule changes have the desired effect? I
believe so but they are not a complete answer by any means. We need
more participation and more ideas not more accusations about our
“hidden agendas” and “flawed surveys”. Apparently we've gored
a few oxen in our proposals. I suggest everyone back off a bit and
support the only group that is trying to move forward. I understand
that there may be unwanted consequences along with the wanted ones. I
doubt it but even so rules can be rolled back in two years.
 There are a lot of very smart people out there on this list involved
in precision aerobatics and we really need to be putting our heads
together for ideas on how to grow. Right now it looks like we only
know how to tear each other down. There has been a lot of emotion out
there on these rules proposals, lets apply it in a more positive
direction. I urge everyone to support these proposals now and to stay
engaged with us on what to do next. The NSRCA is always open to ideas.
  John Gayer 
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