[NSRCA-discussion] Future of Pattern

[mike mueller]

John I don't think this email list represents the feelings of the average pattern enthusiast. Your points are well thought out and I think you hit on a lot of important issues . I for one wouldn't get too upset with the exchange of ideas being thrown out there. Debate is healthy. Where it all ends???
  I think pattern is actually doing fairly well. In some ways it surprises me that anyone else but myself understands it. 
 Dwindling ranks could easily be explained. Dramatic social changes, the economy and a sport that is difficult to participate in due to the effort it takes. These issues and a myriad of others have more of an effect than any of the rule tweaks that are being debated. 
 IMAC in our area has had a significant decrease in attendance in the last few years. Their planes on average cost a lot more than ours. Their Nats  has  significantly declined in the last few years. They get about a third of the flyers as we do. How can one explain that?
 I can't see great numbers of newbies flocking to join our ranks. I think it is what it is. I'll strive to see small gains and little victory's when we get someone new to enjoy the sport. I won't focus on it though because it is what it is. No sense trying to put lipstick on a pig so you can call it something else. I say embrace it and all of its flaws. The 1% who appreciate it will understand.
 If you want to make a difference and grow the sport become an ambassador for it. Help guys at the practice field. Help the new guys at their first contest. It's far and away the most significant activity we can do to grow pattern. It's the grass roots small things that can add up.
 Now lets see how we handle $6 gas.  Mike Mueller


________________________________
From: Michael S. Harrison <drmikedds at sbcglobal.net>
To: 'General pattern discussion' <nsrca-discussion at lists.nsrca.org> 
Sent: Monday, March 19, 2012 7:30 AM
Subject: Re: [NSRCA-discussion] Future of Pattern


well written, i agree
 
From:nsrca-discussion-bounces at lists.nsrca.org [mailto:nsrca-discussion-bounces at lists.nsrca.org] On Behalf Of John Gayer
Sent: Sunday, March 18, 2012 10:38 PM
To: General pattern discussion
Subject: [NSRCA-discussion] Future of Pattern
 
Apparently we can discuss the pros and cons of a new weight rule til hell freezes over without anyone changing their mind. I would like to share with you how I converted from from a no weight change advocate to someone pushing for an increase. I have always felt that most of the past increases in cost were due to rule changes on noise, on turnaround, on engine sizes, for some examples. While this is a factor, there are others at work. Inflation and improved quality of the equipment are also major factors. I’m also not convinced that it really costs that much more in terms of percentage of your takehome income to compete than it did in the old days. However there is a large increase in other activities, both in the hobby and without, competing for your dollars. Another point is that all those potentially expensive rule changes were initiated by the FAI and incorporated by the AMA. So I came to the conclusion that we could make adjustments to AMA rules
 without upsetting the apple cart.

The main reason for change is that the status quo is not working. Pattern has changed from the central focus of many clubs and many flyers to being a small niche in both clubs and the marketplace. It used to be that club sport flyers that never attended a contest still built and flew simply constructed Balsa or balsa and foam pattern planes. This is gone. Even considering the modern equivalents of these planes such as the Excelleron and others, most are now out of production and not being replaced by new kits/ARFs. Just ask any manufacturer about the importance of pattern in their marketing plans. Ask Jon Bruml who sells ads in the K-Factor. I'm not privy to the figures but I suspect even the topline radios that we consider ours, sell better for IMAC, Helis and jets. Time was, your club members were interested in your new radio/model/motor/engine. Now they just say “smooth flying model” and ask about the weather.

The point is that we are now a bit player and in all probability will never occupy center stage again. See a lot of action in the modeling press about last years WC? Get real. Nobody else cares and we are all getting older and slower, dying off one by one and being replaced by only a few and most of those are in their forties. See the graph below? It shows a slow decline in membership dues and it gets worse the further back you go. While the NSRCA membership decline is not conclusive proof that pattern is declining in this country, I am convinced that they are related. What I see in contest attendance in the west is a steady decline over the last couple of decades and is a confirmation of the NSRCA numbers.


So what should the NSRCA and the pattern community do? Maintain the status quo?  I believe I've made a case that it's not working. Can we do something to get back on center stage? Very unlikely. Can we do something to move from a dying niche in the hobby to a growing niche?  Perhaps.
As a first step the NSRCA board has made rules proposals with the intent of increasing safety and making it easier/cheaper to participate. Will these rule changes have the desired effect? I believe so but they are not a complete answer by any means. We need more participation and more ideas not more accusations about our “hidden agendas” and “flawed surveys”. Apparently we've gored a few oxen in our proposals. I suggest everyone back off a bit and support the only group that is trying to move forward. I understand that there may be unwanted consequences along with the wanted ones. I doubt it but even so rules can be rolled back in two years.

There are a lot of very smart people out there on this list involved in precision aerobatics and we really need to be putting our heads together for ideas on how to grow. Right now it looks like we only know how to tear each other down. There has been a lot of emotion out there on these rules proposals, lets apply it in a more positive direction. I urge everyone to support these proposals now and to stay engaged with us on what to do next. The NSRCA is always open to ideas.
 
John Gayer


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