[NSRCA-discussion] Future of Pattern

[Terrence Walker]

John,
 
Thank you for trying to get the current discussion pointed in a more productive direction.
 
Terry 


________________________________
From: John Gayer <jgghome at comcast.net>
To: General pattern discussion <nsrca-discussion at lists.nsrca.org> 
Sent: Sunday, March 18, 2012 8:38 PM
Subject: [NSRCA-discussion] Future of Pattern


Apparently we can discuss the pros and cons of a new weight rule til hell freezes over without anyone changing their mind. I would like to share with you how I converted from from a no weight change advocate to someone pushing for an increase. I have always felt that most of the past increases in cost were due to rule changes on noise, on turnaround, on engine sizes, for some examples. While this is a factor, there are others at work. Inflation and improved quality of the equipment are also major factors. I’m also not convinced that it really costs that much more in terms of percentage of your takehome income to compete than it did in the old days. However there is a large increase in other activities, both in the hobby and without, competing for your dollars. Another point is that all those potentially expensive rule changes were initiated by the FAI and incorporated by the AMA. So I came to the conclusion that we could make adjustments to AMA rules
 without upsetting the apple cart.

The main reason for change is that the status quo is not working. Pattern has changed from the central focus of many clubs and many flyers to being a small niche in both clubs and the marketplace. It used to be that club sport flyers that never attended a contest still built and flew simply constructed Balsa or balsa and foam pattern planes. This is gone. Even considering the modern equivalents of these planes such as the Excelleron and others, most are now out of production and not being replaced by new kits/ARFs. Just ask any manufacturer about the importance of pattern in their marketing plans. Ask Jon Bruml who sells ads in the K-Factor. I'm not privy to the figures but I suspect even the topline radios that we consider ours, sell better for IMAC, Helis and jets. Time was, your club members were interested in your new radio/model/motor/engine. Now they just say “smooth flying model” and ask about the weather.

The point is that we are now a bit player and in all probability will never occupy center stage again. See a lot of action in the modeling press about last years WC? Get real. Nobody else cares and we are all getting older and slower, dying off one by one and being replaced by only a few and most of those are in their forties. See the graph below? It shows a slow decline in membership dues and it gets worse the further back you go. While the NSRCA membership decline is not conclusive proof that pattern is declining in this country, I am convinced that they are related. What I see in contest attendance in the west is a steady decline over the last couple of decades and is a confirmation of the NSRCA numbers.


So what should the NSRCA and the pattern community do? Maintain the status quo?  I believe I've made a case that it's not working. Can we do something to get back on center stage? Very unlikely. Can we do something to move from a dying niche in the hobby to a growing niche?  Perhaps.
As a first step the NSRCA board has made rules proposals with the intent of increasing safety and making it easier/cheaper to participate. Will these rule changes have the desired effect? I believe so but they are not a complete answer by any means. We need more participation and more ideas not more accusations about our “hidden agendas” and “flawed surveys”. Apparently we've gored a few oxen in our proposals. I suggest everyone back off a bit and support the only group that is trying to move forward. I understand that there may be unwanted consequences along with the wanted ones. I doubt it but even so rules can be rolled back in two years.

There are a lot of very smart people out there on this list involved in precision aerobatics and we really need to be putting our heads together for ideas on how to grow. Right now it looks like we only know how to tear each other down. There has been a lot of emotion out there on these rules proposals, lets apply it in a more positive direction. I urge everyone to support these proposals now and to stay engaged with us on what to do next. The NSRCA is always open to ideas.

 
John Gayer



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