To Matrix or not to Matrix

[George Kennie]

Ron,
Now that's what I was looking for! My inexperience left a gaping hole in my understanding of how the current system is implemented.
After the error of my previous post had been pointed out I went back to the drawing board and was all set to make another submission which, except for slight variances in the seeding turned out to be exactly what you outline.
I agree that paper based scenarios can predict inequitable outcomes, but also believe that actuarials will represent truth!
As far as flameouts, mechanical failures,equipment drop-offs, electronic malfunctions, e.t.c  being unfair, I disagree with that assessment. IMO you come prepared, which is your responsibility, you do your best, and if fate deals you a bad hand you take your licks, smile and carry on without whining about something you cannot change.
I really thank you for taking the time to explain the system for my enlightenment, however, bear in mind that when I see what I think are inequities in the seeding you can expect that I will make an effort to expect an explanation.I realize that you're not obligated to me in any way, it's just that I like to see things fair, as I think you do also.
I'm convinced that the current system is a fair and unbiased arrangement which should produce the appropriate winner.
Thanks again,
Georgie

Ron Van Putte wrote:

> On Nov 13, 2004, at 3:54 PM, George Kennie wrote:
>
>      <<<BTW, the way the matrix system is implemented now, the top eight entrants are seeded, based on the previous Nats, and the
>      top four are distributed among groups 1, 2, 3, 4, and the next four are distributed among groups 1, 2, 3, 4.>>>
>
>      This is confusing to me. To say that the top 4 are distributed in groups 1,2,3&4 and the next 4 are distributed in groups 1,2,3&4 sounds the same as the top 8 are distributed in groups 1,2,3&4 ?????? Please clarify.
>
> Pilots are seeded 1 thru 8. Pilots seeded 1 and 5 are in group 1, pilots seeded 2 and 6 are in group 2, pilots seeded 3 and 7 are in group 3 and pilots seeded 4 and 8 are in group 4. First day is group 1 vs 2 and group 3 vs 4. Second day is group 1 vs 3 and group 2 vs 4. Third day is group 1 vs 4 and group 2 vs 3. If things go according to the seeding, at the end of the third day, pilots 1 thru 3 should each have won at least two rounds. Pilot 1 will have won six times, pilot 2 will have won four times and pilot 3 will have won twice. Pilot 4 will not have won a round, but should be close for the day against pilot 3. We keep the best score from each day, plus the next best score not previously used, so pilot 1 has a 4,000 normalized score, pilot 2 also has a 4,000 normalized score and pilot 3 has a score of 2,000, plus his third daily score and the next highest score not used previously. Pilot 4 has his three best daily scores, plus the highest score not previously used.
>
> I have run simulated contests for 32 pilots using this seeding and, unless pilot 1 is vastly superior to pilot 2, even the worst case scenario of having pilots who are ranked 1, 5, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14 in group 1, pilots who are ranked 2, 6, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20 in group 2, pilots who are ranked 3, 7, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26 in group 3 and pilots who are ranked 4, 8, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32 in group 4, the matrix system will get EVERY finishing place correct. Try it yourself if you don't believe it. Frankly, I am tired of having people who have not "done the numbers" claim otherwise. I had a lively discussion and exchange of data with Dave Lockhart on this subject and he could demonstrate situations where the matrix system did not get the right order, but it required that the best pilot had to be far superior to all the other pilots for the matrix system to get it wrong. That hasn't happened in real life so far.
>
> I'll be honest in agreeing that the problem of a good pilot having an unlucky day (flameouts, equipment problems, etc) causing a pair of low scores on one day that would keep him from the finals, is not right, but I don't see a fair way around it.
>
> Ron Van Putte




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