Avoidance Rule

[Gray E Fowler]

Del

That was 3 mids air in 4 years



Gray Fowler
Principal Chemical Engineer
Composites Engineering




"Del Rykert" <drykert at rochester.rr.com>
Sent by: discussion-request at nsrca.org
02/10/2003 06:05 PM
Please respond to discussion

 
        To:     <discussion at nsrca.org>
        cc: 
        Subject:        Re: Avoidance Rule


No matter what the stats show seeing three mid-airs within 4 contests last 
year is three to many for all of us. 
 
     Del K. Rykert
     AMA - 8928 
     NSRCA - 473
     Kb2joi - General 
 
 
----- Original Message ----- 
From: Keith Black 
To: discussion at nsrca.org 
Sent: Friday, January 31, 2003 11:08 PM
Subject: Re: Avoidance Rule

Gray, your number of 0.08% is your probability of having a mid-air "per 
flight". 
 
Another way to look at this is:
 
6 planes involved in a mid-airs in 4 years
That's 1.5 planes per year lost.
So 1.5 out of 25 pilots loose a plane each year
That's a 6% chance of loosing a plane during a year of flying.
 
My guess is that if you had a 6% chance of having an auto accident per 
year you'd never get insurance!
 
In other words, I need to get this new Aries finished so I can get my next 
one started ;-)
 
Keith
----- Original Message ----- 
From: Gray E Fowler 
To: discussion at nsrca.org 
Sent: Friday, January 31, 2003 8:24 AM
Subject: RE: Avoidance Rule


I understand this discussion if it made mid-airs less frequent, but look 
at the numbers first prior to really putting something in that slows down 
a contest or adds other inconvenience. 
This is my personal experience. I have seen 3 mid airs at a contest in 4 
years. On the AVERAGE we have 25 flyers at 6 rounds per contest, 6 
contests per year. That is 3600 flights/3 mid airs or 0.08%. 

No one likes to lose a plane ( happened to me during practice-it was 
Lance's fault and that makes me feel better) but no one likes to drive to 
a contest and not get a maximum of flights in either. Calling out 
avoidance and bailing just does not seem to work with me, as Lance 
mentioned if you are gonna hit it will be a big surprize-no one can call 
you off in time. The reality probably is that at an I MAC event if someone 
bailed they were close but not really going to hit. The argument about 
lots more money does not work either because of the time required to build 
a plane outweighs the cost(for most). Also if money was a legitimate 
argument then since pattern planes only cost $2-3K instead of $5-6K IMAC 
then we could accept the risk. Pattern contests in D6 always try to run 
rapid and smooth where as the IMAC guys are allowed to land and re-fuel 
after round 1-still on the clock, then go up for round 2. They just do not 
seem to be as concerned! about packing in the flights. The "weather" 
reason is strange too as if lightning or something appear the CD would 
shut down (except Gene-he most likely would yell "stay out there you 
weenie.....you need to learn to fly in all conditions")-not the call of 
the flyer. If it got "dangerously windy" or something else-geeez its a 
hobby....dump the round and save your stinkin' plane-once again if the 
flyer could make this call it could wreak havoc and even spur on momentum 
to increase the weight limit or some other sensitive rule-issue(thats a 
dry joke!). 

Consider yourself a soldier-Take the Patton attitude, some of you are 
gonna die, ( or the Full Metal Jacket attitude "better you than me") the 
rest of us live patternly happily after ever. 

And NO I do not think I am Karma destined for a mid-air. Statistically 
speaking I a clear because I already had my mid-air (except for the 
reality that the statistical facts say my chances for a midair are the 
same every time I go up at a contest). So I hope-better you than me. 

Have a nice weekend 




Gray Fowler
Principal Chemical Engineer
Composites Engineering

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