Avoidance Rule

[Bill Glaze]

Gray:
What happens if the plane with a number which is up, hits one whose
number has not yet come?<G>
Bill Glaze

Gray E Fowler wrote:

>
> Yeah...thats what I meant.  I have seen a lot more planes go down due
> to other problems-like forgeting to put on wing bolts, radio problems
> etc. I bet battery/switch (electrical) is way higher than mid airs. My
> only point, bad statistics and all is that if you put in special rules
> for everything that could happen to protect a plane it would bog down
> a contest that already seems to move at a snails pace in 100F weather.
>
> As far as losing planes goes it all comes down to the fact that every
> plane has a NUMBER and when that number is called that plane goes
> down.
> It is good to be in the kit business.
>
>
>
> Gray Fowler
> Principal Chemical Engineer
> Composites Engineering
>
>
>  "Keith Black" <tkeithb at attbi.com>
   Sent by: discussion-request at nsrca.org         To:
                                         <discussion at nsrca.org>
   02/01/2003 01:08 AM                           cc:
   Please respond to discussion                  Subject:        Re:
                                         Avoidance Rule
>
>
>
> Gray, your number of 0.08% is your probability of having a mid-air
> "per flight".
>
> Another way to look at this is:
>
> 6 planes involved in a mid-airs in 4 years
> That's 1.5 planes per year lost.
> So 1.5 out of 25 pilots loose a plane each year
> That's a 6% chance of loosing a plane during a year of flying.
>
> My guess is that if you had a 6% chance of having an auto accident per
> year you'd never get insurance!
>
> In other words, I need to get this new Aries finished so I can get my
> next one started ;-)
>
> Keith
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: Gray E Fowler
> To: discussion at nsrca.org
> Sent: Friday, January 31, 2003 8:24 AM
> Subject: RE: Avoidance Rule
>
>
> I understand this discussion if it made mid-airs less frequent, but
> look at the numbers first prior to really putting something in that
> slows down a contest or adds other inconvenience.
> This is my personal experience. I have seen 3 mid airs at a contest in
> 4 years. On the AVERAGE we have 25 flyers at 6 rounds per contest, 6
> contests per year. That is 3600 flights/3 mid airs or 0.08%.
>
> No one likes to lose a plane ( happened to me during practice-it was
> Lance's fault and that makes me feel better) but no one likes to drive
> to a contest and not get a maximum of flights in either. Calling out
> avoidance and bailing just does not seem to work with me, as Lance
> mentioned if you are gonna hit it will be a big surprize-no one can
> call you off in time. The reality probably is that at an I MAC event
> if someone bailed they were close but not really going to hit. The
> argument about lots more money does not work either because of the
> time required to build a plane outweighs the cost(for most). Also if
> money was a legitimate argument then since pattern planes only cost
> $2-3K instead of $5-6K IMAC then we could accept the risk. Pattern
> contests in D6 always try to run rapid and smooth where as the IMAC
> guys are allowed to land and re-fuel after round 1-still on the clock,
> then go up for round 2. They just do not seem to be as concerned!
> about packing in the flights. The! "weather" reason is strange too as
> if lightning or something appear the CD would shut down (except
> Gene-he most likely would yell "stay out there you weenie.....you need
> to learn to fly in all conditions")-not the call of the flyer. If it
> got "dangerously windy" or something else-geeez its a hobby....dump
> the round and save your stinkin' plane-once again if the flyer could
> make this call it could wreak havoc and even spur on momentum to
> increase the weight limit or some other sensitive rule-issue(thats a
> dry joke!).
>
> Consider yourself a soldier-Take the Patton attitude, some of you are
> gonna die, ( or the Full Metal Jacket attitude "better you than me")
> the rest of us live patternly happily after ever.
>
> And NO I do not think I am Karma destined for a mid-air. Statistically
> speaking I a clear because I already had my mid-air (except for the
> reality that the statistical facts say my chances for a midair are the
> same every time I go up at a contest). So I hope-better you than me.
>
> Have a nice weekend
>
>
>
>
> Gray Fowler
> Principal Chemical Engineer
> Composites Engineering
>
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