What are the odds??? VERSUS Actual experience

[Wayne Galligan]

A couple of years ago I had my midair with a 40% Edge(easy target).  Lance V. had a midair with a trainer at about 150yds out and then not to long after that within the year he had a midair with his buddy Gray F. and they wiped out both their pattern planes.... we are knocking on wood now.

WG

  ----- Original Message ----- 
  From: Rcmaster199 at aol.com 
  To: discussion at nsrca.org 
  Sent: Sunday, August 03, 2003 12:09 AM
  Subject: Re: What are the odds??? VERSUS Actual experience


  David,

  I am looking at it from my point of view only: 100 contests 
  give or take in 24 years, 25 contestants average each contest, 4 1/2 rounds average each contest, 2 mid airs. Per my experience, that's about 1 in 2500 tries, but it isn't probable. It's fact ;-)

  regards

  Matt




    Oops, correction:  The odds of you having a mid-air at a pattern contest may be 1 in 56, not 1 in 560.  The odds of any contestant of having a mid-air is 10 in 56, given the assumption that there are 56 pattern contests each year in North America, and an average of 10 mid-airs per year.    

    <<
    A more interesting question to me is, how offten do pattern planes collide at contests?  I can control mid-airs outside of contests, but we are all subject to the odds of a mid air if we participate in a contest.  Let's say there are 10 mid-airs out of all the 8 NSRCA districts each year.    And lets say there are 7 contests per district on average.  Then that is 56 contests.  Then the odds of having one mid air in a contest is 1 in 56.  Now if there are 20 pilots average per contest, then your chance of mid-air is 1/(56 * 10) = one chance in 560 contest attendances (I think). 



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