What are the odds??? VERSUS Actual experience

[Rcmaster199 at aol.com]

David,

That is correct. I have not personally been involved in a mid air since very 
early in my flying career, around 1978 or 79, and only once at that. I guess, 
from what i read
 from others, that's pretty lucky.
 It has never happened to me at a contest

The odds may be against me now, and the mid-air gods
 may hit me big time. Who knows.

That is the thing about probability statistics, isn't it?

Matt

> Subj:RE: What are the odds??? VERSUS Actual experience 
> Date:8/3/2003 1:46:03 AM Eastern Daylight Time
> From:<A HREF="mailto:davidflynt at earthlink.net">davidflynt at earthlink.net</A>
> Reply-to:<A HREF="mailto:discussion at nsrca.org">discussion at nsrca.org</A>
> To:<A HREF="mailto:discussion at nsrca.org">discussion at nsrca.org</A>
> Sent from the Internet 
> 
> 
> 
> Matt,
>  
> Thanks for sharing the numbers.  I was a little bored today while building 
> my Partner (it just won't end).  BTW, I did not mean to be insensitive to some 
> people loosing their planes, but we all know it happens.  
>  
> So I think that you are saying that you personally did not experience the 
> two mid-airs, but that in 100 contests, with an average of 25 contestants, you 
> witnessed only two mid-airs?  
>  
> I am sincerely interested in anybody else's numbers and observations on this 
> topic.  
>  
> David
> 
> >> -----Original Message-----
>> From: discussion-request at nsrca.org [mailto:discussion-request at nsrca.org]On 
>> Behalf Of Rcmaster199 at aol.com
>> Sent: Saturday, August 02, 2003 10:09 PM
>> To: discussion at nsrca.org
>> Subject: Re: What are the odds??? VERSUS Actual experience
>> 
>> 
>> David,
>> 
>> I am looking at it from my point of view only: 100 contests 
>> give or take in 24 years, 25 contestants average each contest, 4 1/2 rounds 
>> average each contest, 2 mid airs. Per my experience, that's about 1 in 2500 
>> tries, but it isn't probable. It's fact ;-)
>> 
>> regards
>> 
>> Matt
>> 
>> 
>> 
>> >>> Oops, correction:  The odds of you having a mid-air at a pattern 
>>> contest may be 1 in 56, not 1 in 560.  The odds of any contestant of having a 
>>> mid-air is 10 in 56, given the assumption that there are 56 pattern contests 
>>> each year in North America, and an average of 10 mid-airs per year.    
>> 
> 

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