What are the odds???

[David Flynt]

Oops, correction:  The odds of you having a mid-air at a pattern contest may
be 1 in 56, not 1 in 560.  The odds of any contestant of having a mid-air is
10 in 56, given the assumption that there are 56 pattern contests each year
in North America, and an average of 10 mid-airs per year.

<<
A more interesting question to me is, how offten do pattern planes collide
at contests?  I can control mid-airs outside of contests, but we are all
subject to the odds of a mid air if we participate in a contest.  Let's say
there are 10 mid-airs out of all the 8 NSRCA districts each year.    And
lets say there are 7 contests per district on average.  Then that is 56
contests.  Then the odds of having one mid air in a contest is 1 in 56.  Now
if there are 20 pilots average per contest, then your chance of mid-air is
1/(56 * 10) = one chance in 560 contest attendances (I think).
<<


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